Gd. Smith et D. Dorling, IM ALL RIGHT, JOHN - VOTING-PATTERNS AND MORTALITY IN ENGLAND AND WALES, 1981-92, BMJ. British medical journal, 313(7072), 1996, pp. 1573-1577
Objective-To investigate the association between voting patterns, depr
ivation, and mortality across England and Wales. Design-Ecological stu
dy. Setting-All the electoral constituencies of England and Wales. Mai
n outcome measures-Combined and sex specific standardised mortality ra
tios.Results-For the years surrounding the three elections of 1983, 19
87, and 1992 overall standardised mortality ratios showed substantial
negative correlations of -0.74 to -0.76 with Conservative voting and s
ubstantial positive correlations of 0.73 to 0.77 with Labour voting (a
ll P<0.0001). Correlations were higher for male than female mortality.
Conservative voting was strongly negatively correlated (r = -0.84) wi
th the Townsend deprivation score, while Labour voting was positively
correlated (r = 0.74) with this. Labour and Conservative voting explai
ned more of the variance in mortality than did the Townsend score. In
multiple regression analyses for the 1992 election Labour voting (P<0.
0001), Conservative voting ((P<0.0001), the Townsend score (P = 0.016)
, and abstentions (P = 0.032) were all associated with mortality. Labo
ur and Conservative voting explained 61% of the variance in mortality
between constituencies; when Townsend score and abstentions were added
this increased to 63%. Conclusions-Conservative and Labour voting are
at least as strongly associated with mortality as is a standard depri
vation index. Voting patterns may add information above that provided
by indicators of material deprivation. People living in better circums
tances and who have better health, who are least likely to require une
mployment benefit and free school meals or to rely on a state pension
in old age, and who are most able to opt out of state subsidised provi
sion of transport, education, and the NHS, vote for the party that is
most likely to dismantle the welfare state.