This paper applies the outputs of a family of HIV/AIDS models to probl
ems in disease control. The epidemic models comprising this suite incl
ude single and multiregion representations each adopting either a one
or two risk population format. Here, risk is expressed in terms of act
ivity rates and those at low risk are characterized by a reproduction
rate of less than unity which defines a simulated epidemic that cannot
start. These models are applied to the following problems in preventi
on and control: first, estimating the impact of national variations in
population growth rates on the predicted size of the epidemic, second
, constructing control charts to assess the impact of intended interve
ntions, third, evaluating the consequences of targeting preventative a
ction at those at high risk; and last, evaluating the implications for
international control of differences between the serological and simu
lated pandemic pathways. The discussion sets these findings within the
context of forming health policy. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science
Ltd