PREDICTING THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE TO CONIFER SEEDLINGS BY THE PINE WEEVIL (HYLOBIUS-ABIETIS L) - A PRELIMINARY RISK MODEL BY MULTIPLE LOGISTIC-REGRESSION
Wl. Wilson et al., PREDICTING THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE TO CONIFER SEEDLINGS BY THE PINE WEEVIL (HYLOBIUS-ABIETIS L) - A PRELIMINARY RISK MODEL BY MULTIPLE LOGISTIC-REGRESSION, New forests, 12(3), 1996, pp. 203-222
Damage to conifer seedlings caused by the pine weevil, Hylobius abieti
s, was estimated within eighty-two forest sites in Northern Ireland. A
wide range of environmental variables were compared with the variatio
n in damage between study sites using multiple logistic regression. Al
though 45 explanatory variables were considered only four were identif
ied as significant within the final model. The four variables were the
size of the planted area, the age of the planting, whether the majori
ty of seedlings were self-seeded or planted, and if the site had been
previously planted or was a newly planted area. The identification of
these four variables indicates that it is possible to build a model id
entifying areas at risk to weevil damage. Further, although three of t
he factors have been recognised as significant influences on weevil da
mage for some time, they still remain important variables within Briti
sh Isles forestry, suggesting that there is further scope for more pre
cise targeting of weevil control measures.