ISSUE OWNERSHIP IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, WITH A 1980 CASE-STUDY

Theory: This paper develops and applies an issue ownership theory of v oting that emphasizes the role of campaigns in setting the criteria fo r voters to choose between candidates. It expects candidates to emphas ize issues on which they are advantaged and their opponents are less w ell regarded. It explains the structural factors and party system vari ables which lead candidates to differentially emphasize issues. It inv okes theories of priming and framing to explain the electorate's respo nse. Hypotheses: Issue emphases are specific to candidates; voters sup port candidates with a party and performance based reputation for grea ter competence on handling the issues about which the voter is concern ed. Aggregate election outcomes and individual votes follow the proble m agenda. Method: Content analysis of news reports, open-ended voter r eports of important problems, and the vote are analyzed with graphic d isplays and logistic regression analysis for presidential elections be tween 1960 and 1992. Results: Candidates do have distinctive patterns of problem emphases in their campaigns; election outcomes do follow th e problem concerns of voters; the individual vote is significantly inf luenced by these problem concerns above and beyond the effects of the standard predictors.