TECHNOLOGICAL EPOCHS AND BRITISH INDUSTRIAL-PRODUCTION, 1700-1992

This paper presents results on the persistence of British industrial p roduction using the Cochrane (1988) measure, based upon the spectral d ensity at zero frequency, and an extended version of the Crafts-Harley (1992) data set. Utilising results on the timing of macroeconomic epo chs, consideration is given to the effects of structural breaks on mea sures of persistence. In addition the variance composition of producti on is analysed via consideration of the cycle period. The results show high persistence during the Industrial Revolution and lower levels of persistence experienced during the twentieth century. The problems of ignoring structural breaks when calculating measures of persistence a re highlighted and used to explain the results of some previous studie s.