MODELING EXPERTS CONSENSUAL JUDGMENTS FOR NEW PRODUCT ENTRY TIMING

This paper presents a modeling technique that extracts judgments and d ecisions from experts to derive a consensual model for decision suppor t. The proposed approach is applied to build a decision support system for the new product entry timing decision. Experience learned from th e proposed methodology suggests that it is possible to (i) capture con sensual knowledge from a group of experts, (ii) model simultaneous rel ationships among interacting factors, and (iii) offer a robust decisio n support tool.