A NEW MODEL TO PREDICT FINAL HEIGHT IN CONSTITUTIONALLY TALL CHILDREN

In order to develop new height prediction models for children with con stitutionally tall stature, 55 such boys and 88 girls were recalled fo r measurement of adult final height (FH). Data on height (H), age (CA) , and target height (TH) were collected from the hospital charts and r adiographs of the left hand and wrist were retrieved and used for bone age (BA) determination [BA according to the methods of Greulich and P yle (BA(GP)) and Tanner and Whitehouse (BAR(RUS))]. Standard multiple regression techniques were used to develop prediction equations for FH . In addition, to test the validity of the new equations, FH was measu red in a second group of constitutionally tall children (n=32) and com pared with the predicted FH according to our models. In addition, a co mparison was made with other prediction methods. Mean (SD) FH was 196. 0 (4.9) cm in boys and 180.5 (3.8) cm in girls. The ultimate regressio n equation was FH (cm)=216.07 + 0.75 x H + 0.25 x TH - 11.09 x CA - 14 .02 x BA(GP) + 0.74 x (CA x BA(GP)) for boys and FH=161.42 + 0.73 x H + 0.15 x TH - 8.41 x CA - 8.83 x BAR(RUS) - 2.45 x M + 0.55 x (CA x BA R(RUS)) for girls. The models showed satisfying accuracy: the mean (SD ) errors were -1.4(3.2) cm for boys and -0.5 (3.1) cm for girls with c orresponding mean (SD) absolute errors of 2.7 (2.2) cm and 2.0 (2.4) c m, respectively. Compared with the current prediction methods, the new models were quite promising. Their clinical validity has to be ascert ained in larger groups of tall children.