A CONFIDENCE REGION OF SOURCE-TERM PARAMETERS FROM A STATISTICAL-ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL MEASUREMENTS FOLLOWING AN ACCIDENTAL RELEASE TO THE ATMOSPHERE

A procedure has been developed to evaluate statistical errors in the s olution of the inverse problem in the theory of atmospheric diffusion. A conventional approach is used in which transport and deposition of species from a source are described within the framework of a model wi th a set of unknown parameters, the parameters being estimated on the basis of available experimental data on species distribution. Formulae are given to find the estimators of the parameters and their confiden ce region. The proposed technique is illustrated by an example of a ra dioactive release into the atmosphere in the framework of a simple Gau ssian plume model with three unknown parameters: the integral activity , the height of the source, and the deposition velocity of the mononuc lide species.