MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF NATURAL-GAS INTRODUCTION IN GREECE

Input-output analysis has been applied to assess macroeconomic impacts of investment expenditures required for introduction of natural gas ( NG) into the Greek energy system. The final demand vector was assemble d from figures estimated in a prefeasibility study. A 12 x 12 input-ou tput table was used to calculate relative changes in gross domestic pr oduct (GDP) for the entire economy, sectoral production and value-adde d, employment, and wages. We show that construction of the national ga s grid will significantly affect all five macroeconomic indicators dur ing a period of eight years. Taking into account direct and indirect i mpacts, GDP will rise by 2.0% whereas employment and wages will increa se by 1.6%. If imports are fully replaced by local produce, GDP will r ise by 3.0% whereas employment and wages will increase by 2.4 and 2.3% , respectively. The relative change of production for five specified s ectors is greater than 24% during the period 1993-2000. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.