USE OF RESPONSE-SURFACE MODELS TO PREDICT BACTERIAL-GROWTH FROM TIME TEMPERATURE HISTORIES/

A program that predicts the number of generations of bacterial growth from time/temperature history data was developed. The program uses res ponse surface models for Listeria monocytogenes, Aeromonas hydrophila, Yersinia enterocolitica and Pseudomonoas fragi to predict growth tind er fixed conditions of pH, sodium chloride (NaCl) and sodium nitrite ( NaNO2) concentrations, and varying temperature. To obtain time/tempera ture histories, the program can either receive data manually or set up and read time/temperature dataloggers, and store these histories in d ata files. Published and experimental growth data were compared with g rowth predicted by the program under both static and fluctuating tempe rature regimes. To demonstrate a sample use, the growth of each of the species that would occur during 48 hours in two domestic refrigerator s was predicted. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.