NUCLEAR-ENERGY INTO THE 21ST-CENTURY

The historical development of the civil nuclear power generation indus try is examined in the light of the need to meet conflicting energy-su pply and environmental pressures over recent decades. It is suggested that fission (thermal and fast) reactors will dominate the market up t o the period 2010-2030, with fusion being relegated to the latter part of the twenty-first century. A number of issues affecting the use of nuclear electricity generation in Western Europe are considered includ ing its cost, industrial strategy needs, and the public acceptability of nuclear power, The contribution of nuclear power stations to achiev ing CO2 targets aimed at relieving global warming is discussed in the context of alternative strategies for sustainable development, includi ng renewable energy sources and energy-efficiency measures, Trends in the generation of nuclear electricity from fission reactors are finall y considered in terms of the main geopolitical groupings that make up the world in the mid-1990s. Several recent, but somewhat conflicting, forecasts of the role of nuclear power in the fuel mix to about 2020 a re reviewed. It is argued that the only major expansion in generating capacity will take place on the Asia-Pacific Rim and not in the develo ping countries generally. Nevertheless, the global nuclear industry ov erall will continue to be dominated by a small number of large nuclear electricity generating countries; principally the USA, France and Jap an. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd