A HERMENEUTIC READING OF THE SEISMIC RECORD - IMPROBABLE PROBABILITIES

That geology is a hermeneutic, or interpretive, science where percepti on is structured by conception, is well-demonstrated by examination of seismicity. The use of a previously unused tool-probability graph ana lysis-allows interpretation of the seismic record as composed of a ser ies of sometimes overlapping sets of earthquake magnitudes. These popu lations can each be described as normally distributed-thus negating th e value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship as a predictive tool. As normal distributions provide a basis for probability analysis in thei r own right, this conception should still allow probabilistic seismic hazard analysis-assuming of course that the populations defined overla p the magnitudes of interest for hazard analysis.