WORK OR WELFARE - A DILEMMA IN THE DECLINING SWEDISH WELFARE-STATE

The number of welfare recipients among people of working age increased from 1985 to 1992 in Sweden. Unexpectedly, this increase also took pl ace under the economic boom during the late 1980s, characterized by ve ry low unemployment. This is shown in a study of a 10% representative sample of the Swedish population. Not only has the number of welfare r ecipients increased, there has been a parallel increase in the relativ e number of people who are gainfully employed. This trend prevails unt il 1991, when the employment rates start going down. Until then, the d evelopment is characterized by growing;polarization (bifurcation) into those who depend on work for their subsistence and those who depend o n transfer payments from the welfare system, The development of welfar e dependence has been different for men and women. The reasons for thi s development are discussed. Data about the increasing cost of social security are also presented, showing that the welfare system has not b een in any immediate economic crisis from 1985 to 1993.