PREDICTING THE OCCURRENCE OF ENDANGERED SPECIES IN FRAGMENTED LANDSCAPES

Reliable prediction of metapopulation persistence in fragmented landsc apes has become a priority in conservation biology, with ongoing destr uction of habitat confining increasing numbers of species into network s of small patches. A spatially realistic metapopulation model, which includes the first-order effects of patch area and isolation on extinc tion and colonization, has been tested, The distribution of an endange red butterfly was successfully predicted on the basis of parameter val ues estimated for a well-studied congeneric species. This modeling app roach can be a practical tool in the study and conservation of species in highly fragmented landscapes.