THE LIKELY EFFECTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL LAND-USE IN ENGLAND AND WALES

This article summarises the results of a modelling study that examines how the geographical pattern of agricultural land use and production in England and Wales might be affected by climate change. Various scen arios of regional climate change are considered by the model within a price and demand framework of a world food market also affected by glo bal warming. The study concludes that over 3M ha of current farmland m ay become unprofitable for agriculture by 2060 (assuming no climate ch ange). In addition, under the global warming scenarios postulated, a r adical shift in the location of agricultural production, particularly of cereals, would be likely to occur. The merits of this modelling app roach and its usefulness are also discussed. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevi er Science Ltd