This article summarises the results of a modelling study that examines
how the geographical pattern of agricultural land use and production
in England and Wales might be affected by climate change. Various scen
arios of regional climate change are considered by the model within a
price and demand framework of a world food market also affected by glo
bal warming. The study concludes that over 3M ha of current farmland m
ay become unprofitable for agriculture by 2060 (assuming no climate ch
ange). In addition, under the global warming scenarios postulated, a r
adical shift in the location of agricultural production, particularly
of cereals, would be likely to occur. The merits of this modelling app
roach and its usefulness are also discussed. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevi
er Science Ltd