THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY IN AN EXPANDING WORLD

Postwar economic development in Europe can be subdivided in two period s. in the first subperiod 1950-1973 growth is determined by catching u p vis-a-vis the US. The second subperiod 1973-1993 is characterised by a reorientation with respect to the international division of labour. This sets the stage for future developments, which are presented in t he form of three different scenarios. In the European Decline scenario Europe cannot match developments in the US and Japan. As appears from a scenario called Fortress Europe import protection provides no sensi ble solution. To compete on a world scale Europe needs more technologi cal dynamics as sketched in the European Recovery scenario. Calculatio ns of future paths are based on the WorldScan model of the Central Pla nning Bureau.