INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE-CHANGE DUE TO THE IN CREASE IN THE GREENHOUSE-EFFECT ON AGRICULTURE IN QUEBEC

This study, using a climate change scenario generated by the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model (GCM) examines the impa cts of such a climate change on agriculture in southern Quebec. Using a crop model from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAG), yield r esponses of a variety of cereals, legumes, oleaginous and special crop s to climate change are analysed and discussed. Results show that unde r the 2 x CO2 climate scenario the growing season would be longer and accumulation of corn heat units and growing degree days would be more important than under actual climate (1961-1990). One of the more impor tant results of this study is that, on the one hand yield of C-3 cerea ls would be lower and that of C-4 cereals higher in most agricultural regions. On the other hand, the direct fertilisation effect of increas ed CO2 is not considered. It must be cautioned however that we can not generalise results obtained for one legume crop to all legumes.