ECONOMETRIC FORECASTS OF TOURISM DEMAND TO 2005

A complete system of demand equations which was developed previously t o generate forecasts of tourism imports and exports is modified to all ow for destination-specific demand structures in the tourism export fu nctions. The new model is shown to be considerably more realistic than the original one, and represents a major conceptual improvement. Furt hermore, the modified complete system of demand equations yields more accurate out-of-sample forecasts, across both varying time horizons an d types of forecast. The new model is used to generate forecasts of to urism imports and exports for 18 countries and various major geographi cal areas, including the recently expanded European Union, for the per iod up to 2005 for different scenarios. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Sc ience Ltd