INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF CUSTOMER VALUE OF GENERATION SYSTEM RELIABILITY IN INDIA

An analytical framework that integrates generation resource outage cha racteristics and customer value of electricity supply is developed to represent and evaluate reliability of the power system in north India. The composite outage cost function is estimated to be of log-linear f orm based on the regression analysis of data obtained through extensiv e customer field surveys in the region. The research illustrates that potentially higher direct outage costs have been displaced by relative ly lower adaptive response investments to counteract the impact of int erruptions. The implicit reliability of the country's generation capac ity plan through 2000, used along with the outage cost estimates, give s an interrupted energy value, a customer-value-based reliability inde x, of 2.30 Rupees per kilowatt-hour not served in 1990 ($US 1990 = Rup ees 17.50). The outage cost-based reliability planning criterion provi des an optimal level of reliability equivalent of 9.1% loss of load pr obability (LOLP). A comparison reveals that the generation capacity pr ogram is unreliable in the beginning but becomes overly reliable towar d the later years of the plan.