INCORPORATION OF INEXACT DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION WITH FUZZY RELATION ANALYSIS FOR INTEGRATED CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT STUDY

A study of integrated climate change impact assessment and adaptation study for agricultural and timbering activities in Mackenzie Basin, Ca nada, was conducted through development/application of an inexact dyna mic optimization (IDO) model that can reflect complex system features and a related fuzzy relation analysis (FRA) method that is useful for comprehensive assessment of impact patterns. The IDO approach allows u ncertain information to be effectively communicated into the optimizat ion process. The resulting solutions are presented as intervals which can be directly interpreted to generate adaptation alternatives. The m ethod also has low computational requirements since its solution algor ithm does not lead to more complicated intermediate submodels. Through this IDO approach, uncertain, dynamic and interactive features of the study system can be effectively reflected. The FRA method provides a viable means for synthetic analysis of general climate change impact p attern based on the IDO outputs. The method is helpful for obtaining i nsight into the interrelations between different system components. Th e results indicate that complex natures of climate change impacts have been effectively reflected through the proposed approaches. Generally , temporal variations of land characteristics and thus land use activi ties exist due to changes in climatic, economic and environmental cond itions. (C) 1996 Academic Press Limited