DECISION-MAKING UNDER GREAT UNCERTAINTY

This article is an attempt at a systematic account of decision making under greater uncertainty than what traditional, mathematically orient ed decision theory can cope with. Four components of great uncertainty are distinguished: (1) the identity of the options is not well determ ined (uncertainty of demarcation); (2) the consequences of at least so me option are unknown (uncertainty of consequences); (3) it is not cle ar whether information obtained from others, such as experts, can be r elied on (uncertainty of reliance); and (4) the values relevant for th e decision are not determined with sufficient precision (uncertainty o f values). Some possible strategy types are proposed for each of these components. Decisions related to environmental issues are used to ill ustrate the proposals.