DOES DISTANCE FROM THE FORECAST SITE AFFECT SKILL

An outstanding issue in the assessment of forecast skill (and value) i s whether any advantage that can be obtained through regional knowledg e not readily available to distant forecasters supersedes the leveling effect of information obtained by ail forecasters (through the interp retation of numerical weather predictions). An analysis of 1 yr of dat a from the National Collegiate weather Forecasting Contest was conduct ed in order to evaluate whether physical separation from the forecast site (defined by distances outside of and within 1000 km, with a minim um separation of 100 km) has a measurable effect on skill. The results indicate that regional effects (on the meso-alpha scale) are manifest ed in forecasts of both temperature (maximum and minimum) and precipit ation amount (by category). Furthermore, these effects are a function of the experience level of the forecaster. Specifically, experienced f orecasters are able to use regional knowledge to their advantage in fo recasting temperature and precipitation amount, while their less-exper ienced counterparts cannot advantageously use such information for eit her type of forecast. The implication of these results with respect to the allocation of National Weather Service resources is also addresse d.