Finding a parameter whose threshold controls the onset of breaking in
nonlinear modulating surface gravity wave trains has been an elusive p
roblem. Our numerical study of the fully nonlinear two-dimensional inv
iscid problem on a periodic spatial domain for a range of wave group s
tructures examined the behavior of dimensionless relative growth rates
of the local mean wave energy and momentum-densities. We found that t
hese growth rates at the envelope maxima of the wave group oscillate o
n a fast time scale with a significant dynamic range and that a univer
sal threshold exists for the maximum of either of these growth rates t
hat determines whether breaking will occur.