HIV AIDS IN NEW-ZEALAND - AN EPIDEMIC IN DECLINE/

Objective: To describe the AIDS epidemic in New Zealand, and to discus s the reasons for an apparent decline in incidence. Methods: The AIDS Epidemiology Group collects information on persons diagnosed with AIDS through a compulsory notification system. Data were presented on peop le diagnosed to the end of 1994, and reported by the end of September 1995. Results: The cumulative incidence of AIDS in New Zealand was sim ilar to that in some other Western countries, such as the United Kingd om, Germany and Sweden, before 1989, but has been declining since 1989 . The epidemic is concentrated among men who have sex with men (89%). The median survival after diagnosis with AIDS is 13 months. Conclusion s: The observed decline is not likely to be due to reporting delays or changes in reporting or diagnostic practices. The major factor was pr obably a rapid decline in HIV incidence among homosexual men a decade ago, and the effective prevention of epidemics in other subgroups. The epidemic in New Zealand started later than in other countries, enabli ng an earlier response, and there is evidence of behaviour change in h igh risk groups. Preventive efforts and monitoring must be maintained in order to ensure there is no reversal of this decline.