Using information from the Papworth Hospital heart transplant service,
a model was developed to link the main clinical events after cardiac
transplantation to survival and costs. On the basis of the clinical an
d survival experience of 387 patients treated with triple-drug immunos
uppression between 1986 and 1993, together with protocols for patient
management, resource use, and costs, a 5-year Markov model with three
time periods was used to simulate survival and estimate costs. The mod
el accurately mirrors observed actuarial survival; 1- and 5-year survi
val rates were 81% and 65%, respectively. An average cost per patient
of pound 26,000 over 5 years (discounted at a rate of 6%) was estimate
d, The expense of routine care for patients accounts for the majority
of the costs; a patient who remains well throughout the 5-year period
would incur costs of pound 23,000. The sensitivity of the estimates to
alternative assumptions is presented, and the way in which the model
can be used to compare alternative future scenarios is explored.