Sb. Kamin et Jh. Rogers, MONETARY-POLICY IN THE END-GAME TO EXCHANGE-RATE BASED STABILIZATIONS- THE CASE OF MEXICO, Journal of international economics, 41(3-4), 1996, pp. 285-307
This paper evaluates the extent to which Mexican monetary policy in 19
94 may have loosened, or not tightened sufficiently, in the lead up to
the devaluation. Using econometric models of money demand, we find ev
idence that the high monetary base growth reflected strong positive sh
ocks to the demand for money, not supply. Next, we show that interest
rates rose only moderately less in 1994 than was predicted by an estim
ated reaction function. Thus to have maintained the peg, the authoriti
es would have needed to intensify their response to exchange market de
velopments (to alter their reaction function) at a time when concerns
over the banking sector and the economy pointed to a relaxation of mon
etary policy.