A COLLISION RISK MODEL FOR A CROSSING TRACK SEPARATION METHODOLOGY

A mathematical model for estimating collision risk for a method of sep arating aircraft on intersecting tracks is proposed. The model include s an allowance for a small proportion of crossings to be made in the a bsence of any control. Numerical results are presented for some typica l en-route airway intersection points in the Tasman Sea area. Also pre sented is a sensitivity analysis with respect to the crossing angles, Required Navigational Performance (RNP) values, and aircraft speed var iations. Some justification for the assumed probability distributions is also given.