To identify prognostic subgroups among nonfunctioning (nonsyndromic) p
ancreatic endocrine tumours, a series of 61 rumours were analysed syst
ematically for macroscopic, histopathological and immunohistochemical
variables potentially predictive of malignancy. High-grade nuclear aty
pia, elevated mitotic rate and multifocal necrosis allowed us to separ
ate 5 poorly differentiated carcinomas from 56 well differentiated tum
ours. Among the latter, 29 well-differentiated carcinomas showing gros
s local invasion or metastases were identified. Vascular or perineural
microinvasion, Ki67 proliferative index >2%, mitotic rate greater tha
n or equal to 2, size greater than or equal to 4 cm, capsular penetrat
ion, nuclear atypia, lack of progesterone receptors and presence of ca
lcitonin were among the variables correlated with malignancy. The firs
t two were the most sensitive and specific. Their presence or absence
was used in the 27 rumours lacking evidence of malignancy at the time
of surgery to separate 11 cases with increased risk of malignancy (in
2 of which metastases developed during follow-up) from 16 cases with l
imited risk. The resulting four prognostic groups of nonfunctioning pa
ncreatic endocrine rumours (limited- and increased-risk rumours, well-
differentiated carcinomas and poorly differentiated carcinomas) showed
distinct survival curves, which were significantly affected by vascul
ar microinvasion, Ki67 proliferative index and metastases.