POTENTIAL OZONE PRODUCTION FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE-TRANSPORT BASED ON FUTURE EMISSION SCENARIOS

Current and projected (up to 2050 A.D.) concentrations of boundary lay er trace gases, including NOx, CO, CH4, and several nonmethane hydroca rbons were redistributed throughout the troposphere in a simulation of a central U.S. squall line using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) c onvective cloud model. Vertical profiles of the redistributed trace ga ses were used in a one-dimensional photochemical model to determine th e vertical profile of the potential production of O-3. Several differe nt emission scenarios were considered. In the case where NOx emissions were doubled along with an increase in CO, CH4, and NMHC's, the middl e troposphere showed an enhancement of 41% for O-3 production relative to the 1985 case. For the reduction scenario, where NOx emissions wer e decreased by a factor of two, the O-3 produced in the middle troposp here was reduced by 50%. Given the role of convection in the regional O-3 budget of the central U.S. during the summertime, our results sugg est that substantial changes in emissions could bring about changes in mid-tropospheric O-3 large enough to be observed by satellite remote sensing.