DEVELOPMENT OF A PROBABILISTIC BLOOD LEAD PREDICTION MODEL

A partially probabilistic blood lead prediction model has been develop ed, based on the US Environmental Protection Agency integrated exposur e-uptake-biokinetic blood lead model (IEUBK model). This study transla ted the IEUBK model into a spreadsheet format. The uptake submodel inc orporates uncertainty distributions for exposure and bioavailability p arameters. The biokinetic submodel is duplicated with a table incorpor ating partitioning and decay of lead levels in the body. As a case stu dy, the probabilistic model is applied to a lead exposure scenario inv olving a former smelter site in Sandy, Utah. The probabilistic model p roduces less biased estimates of means and standard deviations than th e deterministic model. Parameter uncertainty is propagated in the mode l by the use of Monte Carte simulation. Thus, sensitivity analysis is possible, and driving variables can be determined.