A probabilistic criterion is derived for the onset of wetting front in
stability during surface water infiltration into a randomly stratified
soil. It is based on the common assumption that the natural log hydra
ulic conductivity of the soil is a random, multivariate Gaussian funct
ion of space. Whereas the mean (expectation) of this function may exhi
bit a drift, its fluctuations about the mean are statistically homogen
eous with constant variance and autocorrelation scale. The wetting fro
nt is taken to form a sharp boundary. Closed-form expressions for the
probability of instability, and for the mean critical wave number, are
obtained either directly or via a first-order reliability method. Mon
te Carlo simulations are used to verify these analytical solutions as
well as to determine the mean maximum rate of incipient finger growth
and corresponding mean wave number. The effects of applied pressure gr
adient, capillary pressure head at the wetting front, and statistical
parameters of the hydraulic conductivity field on instability and inci
pient finger growth are investigated for a wide range of these variabl
es. (C) 1996 American Institute of Physics.