Gp. Brasseur et al., ATMOSPHERIC IMPACT OF NOX EMISSIONS BY SUBSONIC AIRCRAFT - A 3-DIMENSIONAL MODEL STUDY, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 101(D1), 1996, pp. 1423-1428
Three-dimensional model calculations suggest that the world's fleet of
subsonic aircraft has enhanced the abundance of nitrogen oxides in th
e upper troposphere by up to 20-35% and has produced a significant inc
rease in the ozone concentration in this region of the atmosphere (4%
in summer and 1% in winter). In year 2050, on the basis of current sce
narios for growth in aviation, the concentration of NOx at 10 km could
increase by 30-60% at midlatitudes, and the concentration of ozone co
uld be enhanced by 7% and 2% in summer and winter, respectively (relat
ive to a situation without aircraft effects). The perturbation is not
limited to the flight corridors but affects the entire northern hemisp
here. The magnitude (and even the sign) of the ozone change depends on
the level of background atmospheric NOx and hence on NOx sources (lig
htning, intrusion from the stratosphere, and convective transport from
the polluted boundary layer) and sinks which are poorly quantified in
this region of the atmosphere. On the basis of our model estimates, 2
0% of the NOx found at 10 km (midlatitudes) is produced by aircraft en
gines, 25% originates from the surface (combustion and soils), and app
roximately 50% is produced by lightning. For a lightning source enhanc
ed in the model by a factor of 2, the increase in NOx and ozone at 10
lan due to aircraft emissions, is reduced by a factor of 2. The magnit
ude of aircraft perturbations in NOx is considerably smaller than the
uncertainties in other NOx sources.