A detailed suite of seafloor heat flow measurements and seismic reflec
tion profiles has been completed in a young (circa 1 Ma) area an the e
astern flank of the Juan de Fuca Ridge that is characterized by unusua
lly smooth basement topography and uniform sediment cover. Measurement
s spaced nominally 100 m apart along one 5-km-long line segment define
a coherent pattern of heat flow variation. The profile exhibits a ser
ies of four maxima and minima with an average half-wavelength of 600 m
and an amplitude of variation of 35 mW m(-2), roughly 15% of the aver
age background heat flow of 270 mW m(-2). The heat flow variations are
uncorrelated with local basement topography or sediment thickness var
iations and may reflect cellular convection in the extrusive layer of
the igneous oceanic crust. This layer, which is bounded above by low-p
ermeability sediments and below by low-permeability intrusive rocks, i
s imaged locally along a multichannel seismic reflection profile and e
stimated to be about 600 m thick. Temperatures estimated at the top of
this layer by extrapolation of the seafloor heat flow measurements av
erage roughly 40 degrees C and vary between adjacent heat flow maxima
and minima by only about 7 K. These observations, together with a seri
es of numerical simulations of hydrothermal circulation in a confined,
permeable upper crustal layer, provide quantitative insights into the
convection process. Values of upper crustal permeability used in the
simulations ranged from below the critical value required for convecti
ve instability to roughly 2 orders of magnitude above. Results show th
e amplitudes of lateral seafloor heat flow variability, upper basement
temperature variability, and fluid-pressure variability to be strongl
y dependent on permeability. For example, the amplitude of heat flow v
ariations is predicted to increase rapidly above critical conditions,
from zero at a subcritical permeability (k) of 2 x 10(-14) m(2) to 75
mW m(-2) at k = 5 x 10(-14) m(2) and to a maximum of 90 mW m(-2) at k
= 8 x 10(-14) m(2). Predicted variability then falls m roughly as k(-1
/2), reaching the level observed in the Juan de Fuca Ridge flank study
area at a permeability of 2 x 10(-12) m(2). Although a value at near-
critical conditions is also allowed by the results, the higher value i
s probably correct, for it is known from other observations that hydro
thermal circulation persists in crust of much greater age, despite the
effect of chemical alteration, which reduces permeability, and therma
l aging, which reduces buoyancy driving forces. The value of average p
ermeability thus estimated for the upper oceanic crust is more than 1
order of magnitude greater than values determined in deep-ocean boreho
les. The borehole values may be lower because they are representative
of older and/or more highly altered crust or because they do not corre
ctly represent the permeability at the full scale of the convective sy
stem.