A PRACTICAL METHOD FOR PREDICTING MIDLATITUDE TOTAL COLUMN OZONE FROMOPERATIONAL FORECAST TEMPERATURE-FIELDS

Accurate forecasts of total column ozone (Omega) are important because , among other reasons, forecasts of clear-air biologically important s olar ultraviolet (UVB) reaching the Earth's surface are exponentially sensitive to Omega. We present a simple method for predicting Omega us ing forecast lower stratospheric temperatures and a precalculated look up table based on ozone climatology from several years of satellite ob servations. Compared with observations, the simple method gives 1-day forecast Omega errors of similar to 1-2% (similar to 2-3%) in northern (southern) hemisphere summers, comparable with current multivariate U VB forecast models being used by national weather services in several countries. The advantage of the prediction method described here is it s simplicity: a convenient lookup table based on ozone climatology is used, without the need for recalculation in each forecast. The method may prove useful for surface UVB forecasts, especially in the biologic ally important summer seasons of both hemispheres.