SPATIAL SELF-ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE OF TRANSIENTS IN A METAPOPULATION MODEL

We extend the analysis of a previously published type of model represe nting a linear set of habitat fragments each of which supports populat ions which reproduce in (synchronized) discrete generations. The popul ations are linked by a dispersal phase which occurs after each reprodu ctive bout. Previously, this model has been shown to produce transient behaviour lasting thousands of generations and characterized by sudde n changes in behaviour. We confirm the existence of these effects and characterize the conditions under which they are likely to occur. We a lso demonstrate that the model predicts organized spatial heterogeneit y across the system. This means that the dynamics of the ensemble can be a poor predictor of the behaviour of individual populations, and fu rther, that different populations within the same linked system can ex perience quantitatively very different dynamics. We also demonstrate t hat the model predicts that the peripheral populations should be subje ct to greater temporal variation than the interior. We discuss the app ropriateness of the model to a variety of natural systems and the impl ications of its predictions.