PROBABILITIES AND LIFETIME DURATIONS OF SHORT-STAY HOSPITAL AND NURSING-HOME USE IN THE UNITED-STATES, 1985

OBJECTIVES. The authors present a four-state increment-decrement life table model from which estimates of the risk and duration of nursing h ome and short-term hospital stays in the United States are derived. ME THODS. Survival analysis was used to generate various transition proba bilities while controlling for population heterogeneity. In addition, a newly developed algorithm was applied to construct the multistate li fe table specifically for health-care use. RESULTS. The results reveal that in 1985, a US civilian is expected to spend 72.35 years in the c ommunity, 59.5 days in short-stay hospitals, and 2.28 years in nursing homes throughout his or her lifetime. CONCLUSIONS. The single-year ri sk of nursing home and short-stay hospital use is shown to be an incre asing function of age, especially for the older adults.