ASSOCIATION OF SOME GLOBAL REGIONAL CIRCULATION PARAMETERS WITH SUBSEASONAL INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL/

Long-term (1962-1995) data of a number of global/regional circulation parameters have shown statistically significant correlations (at the f ive per cent level) with the subseasonal Indian monsoon rainfall, Util ising some of these circulation parameters, we have developed a few re gression models to forecast the subseasonal monsoon rainfall, The perf ormances of these models, assessed by cross-validation, are seen to be fairly good as the root mean square errors (RSME) of the forecasts fo r the entire period of study are significantly smaller than the standa rd deviations of corresponding rainfall series, The correlations betwe en the actual and forecast series are also significant.