VALIDATION OF SUSCEPTIBILITY AS A PREDICTOR OF WHICH ADOLESCENTS TAKEUP SMOKING IN THE UNITED-STATES

Smoking onset has 4 levels, with a ''susceptibility'' level preceding early experimentation. This study assessed the predictive validity of smoking susceptibility in a longitudinal study of a nationally represe ntative sample of 4,500 adolescents who at baseline reported never hav ing puffed on a cigarette. At follow-up 4 years later, 40% of the samp le had experimented with smoking, and 8% had established a smoking hab it. Baseline susceptibility to smoking, defined as the absence of a fi rm decision not to smoke, was a stronger independent predictor of expe rimentation than the presence of smokers among either family or the be st friend network. However, susceptibility to smoking was not as impor tant as exposure to smokers in distinguishing adolescents who progress ed to established smoking from those who remained experimenters at fol low-up.