A STATISTICAL-MODEL OF TRANSMISSION OF HIB BACTERIA IN A FAMILY

The simultaneous estimation of family and community transmission rates as well as cure rates from panel data in a recurrent Hib (Haemophilus influenzae type b bacteria) infection is considered. An individual-ba sed stationary Markov process model with constant hazards in two age g roups is applied to describe recurrent asymptomatic Hib infection in a family with small children. The problem of estimation is solved in te rms of the Bayesian posterior of the model parameters. The model is us ed to predict prevalence and incidence of Hib carriage in families as a function of the family size and age structure.