PREDICTING INFECTION IN HOSPITALIZED-PATIENTS WITH SYSTEMIC LUPUS-ERYTHEMATOSUS

To identify the risk factors for infection and to develop a model for the prediction of infection in hospitalized patients with active syste mic lupus erythematosus (SLE), we carried out a retrospective cohort s tudy with clinical data collected from 121 consecutive patients with a ctive SLE, Seventeen patients had infection within 6 months of beginni ng steroid therapy for active SLE, Independent multivariate predictors of infection were a decrease in the serum albumin value, an increase in the serum creatinine value, and prednisolone use in a dose of great er than or equal to 60 mg/day without methylprednisolone pulse therapy , The error rate of the model by 10-fold cross-validation method was 1 2%, sensitivity was 65%, specificity was 91%, and positive predictive value was 55%, Four nonsurvivors were correctly discriminated, Use of this model could contribute to earlier diagnosis of infection and may assist decisions regarding empiric antimicrobial administration in pat ients with SLE.