SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF COMMERCIAL BURGLARIES - THE EVIDENCEEXAMINED

The factors that are crucial in predicting burglary of commercial esta blishments are evaluated. Burglars are rational in their choice of tar get, in that they consider both the revenue generated by the burglary and the chances of being apprehended. Location of the target plays a m ajor role; establishments located within three blocks of heavily trave lled thoroughfares are less vulnerable to burglary than those located further away. The wealthier the community, the higher the probability of burglary of its commercial establishments. Retail establishments an d businesses which are located in office parks are most vulnerable to burglary. Establishments which have been in business less than one yea r are more likely to be burgled; the longer a store is in business, th e less likely it is to become a victim of burglary. Burglar alarms are the most effective deterrent available to commercial establishments, followed by the installation of exterior and interior lights. In gener al, the probability of burglary of non-alarmed properties is 4.57 time s higher than of similar alarmed property. The study is based upon a d etailed survey of commercial establishments in three suburban communit ies of Philadelphia. These communities vary in their locational, physi cal and socio-economic characteristics and represent many suburban loc alities throughout the United States.