DECISION-THEORETIC REFINEMENT PLANNING IN MEDICAL DECISION-MAKING - MANAGEMENT OF ACUTE DEEP VENOUS THROMBOSIS

Decision-theoretic refinement planning is a new technique for finding optimal courses of action. The authors sought to determine whether thi s technique could identify optimal strategies for medical diagnosis an d therapy. An existing model of acute deep venous thrombosis of the lo wer extremities was encoded for analysis by the decision-theoretic ref inement planning system (DRIPS). The encoding represented 6,206 possib le plans. The DRIPS planner used artificial intelligence techniques to eliminate 5,150 plans (83%) from consideration without examining them explicitly. The DRIPS system identified the five strategies that mini mized cost and mortality. The authors conclude that decision-theoretic planning is useful for examining large medical-decision problems.