A MODEL THE FREQUENCY OF EXTREME RIVER LEVELS BASED ON RIVER DYNAMICS

A new model for predicting the frequency of extreme river levels is pr oposed which encapsulates physical knowledge about river dynamics. The central idea is the use of continuous time stochastic processes that use hydrological equations and ergodic theory to model extreme events, rather than relying on statistical fits of classical models to local maximum data. A simple example shows how changes in discharge characte ristics change the extreme river level frequencies. Solutions are prov ided for special cases, and directions for more general techniques are provided. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd