SPECIAL ELECTIONS AND THE GROWTH OF WOMENS REPRESENTATION IN THE US HOUSE-OF-REPRESENTATIVES

High incumbency return rates slow the pace at which underrepresented g roups can increase their ratio of membership in the U.S. House of Repr esentatives. We document the fact that the special election process pr ovides an important source of congressional turnover which is particul arly advantageous to women seeking to win election to the House. In fa ct, we document that over one-third of all women entering the House du ring the decade studied entered through special elections. If women ar e to increase their proportion in the House of Representatives, either the size of the House needs to be increased or seats held by men must be replaced with seats held by women. As there is little chance that the size of the House will increase, women will have to replace men. T his is, of course, happening, but at a very slow rate. Though many fac tors affect women's recruitment into the House, part of the problem is that incumbents, currently 89.2% men, seem to rum over at a very slow rate. In the 1988 election (a high point for incumbent return rates), only 7.6% of the Congress was new. Retention, it is argued, creates f ew opportunities for women, and other underrepresented groups, to ente r Congress. However, conclusions about the relationship between turnov er and the election of women based on biannual elections alone are inc omplete because such explanations do not account for the influence of special elections.