MODELING POTENTIAL CHANGES OF FOREST AREA IN THAILAND UNDER CLIMATE-CHANGE

The forest cover of Thailand has been characterized according to the H oldridge Life Zone Classification, a model that correlates climatic fe atures with vegetation distribution Six Holdridge life zone types of f orest cover are found in Thailand: subtropical dry forest, subtropical moist forest, subtropical wet forest, tropical dry forest, tropical m oist forest, and tropical wet forest. Climate change scenarios were si mulated by three general circulation models: two United Kingdom Meteor ological Office models (the low and high resolution versions) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model. These scenarios were used t o simulate the effects of future climate change on Thai forests. The r atios of precipitation and the absolute values of temperature changes were incorporated into a baseline climate scenario from the Internatio nal Institute of Applied Systems Analysis. Under the climate change sc enarios simulated by the three general circulation models, the subtrop ical dry forest could potentially disappear, and areas of tropical ver y dry forest would appear. In general, the area of subtropical life zo ne would decline from about 50% to 20%-12% of total cover, whereas the tropical life zone would expand its cover from 45% to 80%. All three general circulation model scenarios suggest that the tropical dry fore st has the greatest potential to extend into the subtropical moist for est. This analysis suggests that global climate change would have a pr ofound effect on the future distribution and health of Thai forests.