POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE ON THE COASTAL RESOURCES OF MANILA BAY - A PRELIMINARY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

This study considers the Manila Bay coastal area of the Philippine for evaluation of possible consequences of accelerated sea level rise in the context of climate change, and suggests adaptive responses to such threats. The semienclosed Manila Bay is bounded by the provinces of B ataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, and Cavite, and some of the towns and cities of Metro Manila along the eastern side. This region is important to t he commercial industrial agricultural and aquacultural activities of t he Philippines, with Manila as the seat of the national government and the rest among the political constituents of the National Capital Reg ion. An increasing trend in the mean sea level has been observed since 1965 and continues today. The bay area is already subject to several hazards including floods and storm surges during tropical cyclones. Th e shoreline has changed greatly in the last 5 to 10 years due to recla mation for housing, ports, coastal roads, buildings, and other urbaniz ed developments, adding to the threat of inundation. Selection of appr opriate responses is looked at in terms of expected vulnerability, cos ts, land use, and other sociopolitical and legal considerations. Parti al results show that parts of Cavite and Metro Manila Bay areas are es pecially vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise.