THE EFFECT OF CYCLICAL AND SEASONAL-VARIATION IN INDUSTRIAL-PRODUCTION ON OIL IMPORTS - A STRUCTURAL TIME-SERIES STUDY OF THE JAPANESE CASE

This paper examines the cyclical and seasonal relationships between Ja panese industrial production and oil imports using structural time ser ies analysis. The time series are decomposed into trend, cyclical, sea sonal and irregular components. Results of causality testing reveal th at there is causal influence from the seasonal component of industrial production to the seasonal component of oil imports, but no such rela tionship between the cyclical components. These results are compared a nd reconciled with those obtained from seasonal error correction model ling.