IMPLICATIONS OF INCREASED INFECTIVITY IN EARLY-STAGE HIV-INFECTION - APPLICATION OF A BERNOULLI-PROCESS MODEL OF HIV TRANSMISSION

Recent reports suggest that the infectivity of sexually transmitted HI V (i.e., the probability of transmission on a single sexual contact) m ay be up to 1,000 times greater during the first few months of infecti on than during the long asymptomatic period that precedes the developm ent of AIDS. Assuming the validity of this estimate, a simple Bernoull i-process model of HIV transmission indicates that, in some cases, the expected number of secondary infections is greater for the brief peri od of primary infection than for the much longer asymptomatic phase. T he implications of these findings for current HIV/AIDS prevention prac tices are analyzed with particular attention to the role of condom use in preventing HIV transmission.