DECREASING DISABILITY IN THE 21ST-CENTURY - THE FUTURE-EFFECTS OF CONTROLLING 6 FATAL AND NONFATAL CONDITIONS

Objectives. This study assessed the effects of reducing fatal and nonf atal health conditions on the number of functionally limited older Ame ricans in the coming decades. Methods. Data from the 1990 census and t he Longitudinal Study of Aging were used to project the number of func tionally limited older Americans from 2001 to 2049, assuming 1% bienni al reductions in five conditions that shorten life expectancy (coronar y artery disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and confusion) and one con dition that decreases functional ability (arthritis). Results. Decreas ing the prevalence of arthritis by 1% every 2 years would lead to a mu ch greater reduction in functional limitation between 2001 and 2049 (4 million person-years) than would decreasing any of the other conditio ns by the same amount. Decreases in two fatal conditions (cancer and c oronary artery disease) would lead to increases in functional limitati on (0.9 and 0.1 million person-years, respectively). Conclusions. Adva nces against common nonfatal disabling conditions would be more effect ive than advances against fatal conditions in blunting the large incre ase in the functionally limited older population anticipated in the 21 st century.