ON MODELING POSSIBILISTIC UNCERTAINTY IN 2-STATE RELIABILITY THEORY

In this paper, we show how a possibilistic uncertainty model can be us ed to represent and manipulate uncertainty about the states of a syste m and of its components. At the same time, we present a thorough study of the incorporation of this possibilistic uncertainty model in class ical, two-state reliability theory. The possibilistic reliability of a component or system is introduced and studied. Furthermore, we introd uce the important notion of a possibilistic structure function, based upon the concept of a classical, two-valued structure function. Under certain conditions of possibilistic independence, it allows us to calc ulate the possibilistic reliability of a system in terms of the possib ilistic reliabilities of its components. Finally, we give straightforw ard methods for determining a possibilistic structure function from it s classical, two-valued counterpart. In this way, we intend to show th at a possibilistic uncertainty model in two-state reliability theory i s formally analogous to, and certainly not more complicated than, a pr obabilistic uncertainty model.